The Tu-22M3 missile carrier crashed in the Stavropol region. Kyiv claims it was shot down, Moscow says there was a technical malfunction

BBC

3 min

April 19, 2024

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Photo caption, Tu-22M3

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The Tu-22M3 long-range missile-carrying bomber crashed in the Stavropol Territory.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the incident occurred while returning to the airfield “after completing a combat mission.” There was no ammunition on board, the plane crashed in a deserted area, there was no destruction on the ground, the Russian military emphasized.

There were four pilots on board the plane. According to information from the Governor of the Stavropol Territory, Vladimir Vladimirov, two ejected, they survived and were sent to the hospital, one died, the search for the fourth continues.

The Ukrainian side states that the Tu-22M3 was shot down as a result of the joint work of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and the Ukrainian Air Force.

The Russian Ministry of Defense cited a technical malfunction as the preliminary cause of the accident.

The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate says that the plane “was shot down at a distance of about 300 kilometers from Ukraine using the same means that previously hit the Russian A-50 long-range radar detection and control aircraft.”

The Main Intelligence Directorate also noted that this is the first successful destruction of a strategic bomber in the air during a combat mission during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

On Friday night, Russian planes launched a missile attack on the Dnepropetrovsk region. According to the office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, eight people were killed as a result of the shelling, including two children. There are also many wounded, information on them is being clarified.

The death of the A-50: how could the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroy the Russian flying radar?January 15, 2024

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BBC military observer Ilya Abishev analyzes:

From the village of Bogomolov in the Stavropol Territory, in the area of ​​which the Russian Tu-22M3 crashed, it is almost 400 km to the nearest point on the front line in Ukraine.

The Russian Ministry of Defense blames a technical malfunction as the cause of the plane crash.

The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate claims that the bomber was shot down “by the same means that previously hit” the Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft over the Krasnodar Territory. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Tu-22M3 was shot down at a distance of about 300 kilometers from Ukraine (probably referring to the battle line), managed to fly to the Stavropol Territory and crashed there.

Theoretically, this is possible. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are armed with an air defense system technically capable of firing at a distance of 300 km - the Soviet-designed S-200D Dubna.

The Kh-22 missiles that Russian Tu-22M3s fire over Ukraine have a maximum range of 600 km and low accuracy, so it can be assumed that the bomber pilot tried to fly as close to the target as possible.

But this exhausts the arguments in favor of the Ukrainian GUR version. There are more arguments against it.

The deployment time of the S-200 system is 19 hours, and this had to be done near the front line. Whether it is possible to deploy such a valuable air defense system in a zone of fierce battles for almost a day without the enemy noticing is a big question.

The A-50, which the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate is talking about, fell in the Krasnodar Territory, 230 km from the front line. In that case, we can still assume that he was shot down by an S-200 missile at maximum range (which in itself is very difficult and is possible only under the most favorable conditions for an attack). But 400 km in the case of the Tu-22M3 is too far.

The warhead of the S-200 missile is high-explosive fragmentation and very powerful. If an aircraft is hit by numerous fragments of this missile, it usually leads to a complete failure of the control systems, after which it is almost impossible to turn around and fly another 100-200 km.

Video footage from the scene shows that the Tu-22M3 falls in a flat spin, its right engine is on fire. An engine fire is a common occurrence due to a technical malfunction. It could also be caused by a missile from a man-portable anti-aircraft system or a bird strike, but this is unlikely since these aircraft fly at high altitude.

In addition to these assumptions, there also remains the version of “friendly fire,” as well as the possibility of Ukraine using new air defense systems that were not previously advertised. It is noteworthy that on Friday, for the first time during the war, the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported two downed Kh-22 supersonic missiles fired from a Tu-22M3.

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💥 Внаслідок операції ГУР у взаємодії з ПС знищено бомбардувальник Ту-22МЗ, який сьогодні запускав ракети по Україні

Ту-22МЗ вдалося збити на відстані близько 300 кілометрів від України.https://t.co/S0LgcEgwhm pic.twitter.com/afg7JojRqx

— Анатолій Штефан (Штірліц) (@Shtirlitz53) April 19, 2024